I was surprised to read about DD saying he was still “odds-on” to win the leadership, in response to journalists telling hiim he was crap (or whatever). I wasn’t surprised that he was telling a lie, or at least a falsehood, because I thought that he was still odds-on to win, when in fact he wasn’t, at any major bookmaker; and even if I had known that, life’s too short to get surprised when politicians tell lies, or falsehoods. It just seemed a terribly defensive thing to say, as if there wasn’t anything he could say in support of his leadership bid, or no reason he could give as to why he might bounce back, or as to why his crap speech didn’t matter; all he could say was that the bookies’ didn’t agree with the journalistic conventional wisdom of the moment.
Well, as it turns out, they did. Anyway, this is just a preamble to a link to my old colleague Mike Smithson’s site, which I’m sure you all read anyway, as if anyone’s qualified to comment on things like political betting markets, it’s him.